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March 04, 2008
Taxonomy of hopelessness.
The old line is that "A lottery is a tax on people who are bad at math". In the social sciences we have another saying "Rational choice". It's not at all catchy.
What it basically means is that, in aggregate, people tend to do the thing which brings them the best results. That's a simplification, of course.
So, when a political scientist sees a whole bunch of people playing the lottery, we assume that this is the best investment available to them. And since the expected return is, um, poor, it points to a basic lack of opportunity to the players.
When we see people playing the lottery for health insurance, we can guess that there is something deeply, deeply, wrong with our society. The good news? At least they're able to pay for an ongoing occupation of Iraq...
Posted by Andrew at March 4, 2008 07:36 AM
Comments
Just one small objection: the whole claim that the lottery is a tax on the poor/stupid/bad-at-math only makes sense if you approach the lottery as an investment. The lottery is a terrible investment. Duh. But if I went off and claimed that plunking down a few hundred dollars at the craps table was my investment strategy, it would be a *joke*. People gamble because gambling is a game and games are fun. You may well argue that the lottery is not a very fun game, but neither is candy land, and no one's ever insisted that candy land is a tax on children. No one ever writes off their lottery tickets on their taxes as investment losses. The whole claim is predicated on the notion that the only benefit one could get out of the lottery is the payout in the event that one won. The chances of making money on the lottery are so close to zero as makes no odds, but they're not worse than the chances of making money by buying a movie ticket, and no one calls that a tax on people who are bad at math.
Posted by: Ross ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.punningpundit.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at March 4, 2008 08:32 AM
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